|
Understanding
Opportunities and Risks in Futures Trading
Table of Contents:
Introduction
Futures Markets: What, Why & Who
The Market Participants
What is a Futures Contract?
The Process of Price Discovery
After the Closing Bell
The Arithmetic of Futures
Trading
Margins
Basic Trading Strategies
Buying (Going Long) to Profit from an Expected Price Increase Selling
(Going Short) to Profit from an Expected Price Decrease
Spreads
Participating in Futures Trading Deciding How to
Participate
Regulation of Futures Trading Establishing an
Account
What to Look for in a Futures Contract
The Contract Unit How Prices are Quoted
Minimum Price Changes
Daily Price Limits
Position Limits
Understanding (and Managing) the Risks of Futures Trading
Choosing a Futures Contract
Liquidity
Timing
Stop Orders
Spreads
Options on Futures Contracts
Buying Call Options
Buying Put Options
How Option Premiums are Determined
Selling Options
In Closing
Introduction
Futures
markets have been described as continuous auction markets and as clearing
houses for the latest information about supply and demand. They are the
meeting places of buyers and sellers of an ever-expanding list of
commodities that today includes agricultural products, metals, petroleum,
financial instruments, foreign currencies and stock indexes. Trading has
also been initiated in options on futures contracts, enabling option buyers
to participate in futures markets with known risks.
Notwithstanding the
rapid growth and diversification of futures markets, their primary purpose
remains the same as it has been for nearly a century and a half, to provide
an efficient and effective mechanism for the management of price risks. By
buying or selling futures contracts--contracts that establish a price level
now for items to be delivered later--individuals and businesses seek to
achieve what amounts to insurance against adverse price changes. This is
called hedging.
Volume has increased
from 14 million futures contracts traded in 1970 to 179 million futures and
options on futures contracts traded in 1985.
Other futures market
participants are speculative investors who accept the risks that hedgers
wish to avoid. Most speculators have no intention of making or taking
delivery of the commodity but, rather, seek to profit from a change in the
price. That is, they buy when they anticipate rising prices and sell when
they anticipate declining prices. The interaction of hedgers and
speculators helps to provide active, liquid and competitive markets.
Speculative participation in futures trading has become increasingly
attractive with the availability of alternative methods of participation.
Whereas many futures traders continue to prefer to make their own trading
decisions--such as what to buy and sell and when to buy and sell--others
choose to utilize the services of a professional trading advisor, or to
avoid day-to-day trading responsibilities by establishing a fully managed
trading account or participating in a commodity pool which is similar in
concept to a mutual fund.
For those individuals
who fully understand and can afford the risks which are involved, the
allocation of some portion of their capital to futures trading can provide
a means of achieving greater diversification and a potentially higher
overall rate of return on their investments. There are also a number of
ways in which futures can be used in combination with stocks, bonds and
other investments.
Speculation in
futures contracts, however, is clearly not appropriate for everyone. Just
as it is possible to realize substantial profits in a short period of time,
it is also possible to incur substantial losses in a short period of time.
The possibility of large profits or losses in relation to the initial
commitment of capital stems principally from the fact that futures trading
is a highly leveraged form of speculation. Only a relatively small amount
of money is required to control assets having a much greater value. As we
will discuss and illustrate, the leverage of futures trading can work for
you when prices move in the direction you anticipate or against you when
prices move in the opposite direction.
It is not the purpose
of this material to suggest that you should--or should not--participate in
futures trading. That is a decision you should make only after consultation
with your broker or financial advisor and in light of your own financial
situation and objectives.
Intended to help
provide you with the kinds of information you should first obtain--and the
questions you should seek answers to--in regard to any investment you are
considering:
* Information about
the investment itself and the risks involved
* How readily your
investment or position can be liquidated when such action is necessary or
desired
* Who the other
market participants are
* Alternate methods
of participation
* How prices are
arrived at
* The costs of
trading
* How gains and
losses are realized
* What forms of
regulation and protection exist
* The experience,
integrity and track record of your broker or advisor
* The financial
stability of the firm with which you are dealing
In sum, the
information you need to be an informed investor.
Back
to TOP
Futures Market
The frantic shouting
and signaling of bids and offers on the trading floor of a futures exchange
undeniably convey an impression of chaos. The reality however, is that
chaos is what futures markets replaced. Prior to the establishment of
central grain markets in the mid-nineteenth century, the nation's farmers
carted their newly harvested crops over plank roads to major population and
transportation centers each fall in search of buyers. The seasonal glut
drove prices to giveaway levels and, indeed, to throwaway levels as grain
often rotted in the streets or was dumped in rivers and lakes for lack of
storage. Come spring, shortages frequently developed and foods made from
corn and wheat became barely affordable luxuries. Throughout the year, it
was each buyer and seller for himself with neither a place nor a mechanism
for organized, competitive bidding. The first central markets were formed
to meet that need. Eventually, contracts were entered into for forward as
well as for spot (immediate) delivery. So-called forwards were the
forerunners of present day futures contracts.
Spurred by the need to
manage price and interest rate risks that exist in virtually every type of
modern business, today's futures markets have also become major financial
markets. Participants include mortgage bankers as well as farmers, bond
dealers as well as grain merchants, and multinational corporations as well
as food processors, savings and loan associations, and individual
speculators.
Futures prices
arrived at through competitive bidding are immediately and continuously
relayed around the world by wire and satellite. A farmer in Nebraska, a
merchant in Amsterdam, an importer in Tokyo and a speculator in Ohio
thereby have simultaneous access to the latest market-derived price
quotations. And, should they choose, they can establish a price level for
future delivery--or for speculative purposes--simply by having their broker
buy or sell the appropriate contracts. Images created by the fast-paced
activity of the trading floor notwithstanding, regulated futures markets
are a keystone of one of the world's most orderly envied and intensely
competitive marketing systems. Should you at some time decide to trade in
futures contracts, either for speculation or in connection with a risk
management strategy, your orders to buy or sell would be communicated by
phone from the brokerage office you use and then to the trading pit or ring
for execution by a floor broker. If you are a buyer, the broker will seek a
seller at the lowest available price. If you are a seller, the broker will
seek a buyer at the highest available price. That's what the shouting and
signaling is about.
In either case, the
person who takes the opposite side of your trade may be or may represent
someone who is a commercial hedger or perhaps someone who is a public
speculator. Or, quite possibly, the other party may be an independent floor
trader. In becoming acquainted with futures markets, it is useful to have
at least a general understanding of who these various market participants
are, what they are doing and why.
Back
to TOP
Hedgers
The details of
hedging can be somewhat complex but the principle is simple. Hedgers are
individuals and firms that make purchases and sales in the futures market
solely for the purpose of establishing a known price level--weeks or months
in advance--for something they later intend to buy or sell in the cash
market (such as at a grain elevator or in the bond market). In this way
they attempt to protect themselves against the risk of an unfavorable price
change in the interim. Or hedgers may use futures to lock in an acceptable
margin between their purchase cost and their selling price. Consider this
example:
A jewelry
manufacturer will need to buy additional gold from his supplier in six
months. Between now and then, however, he fears the price of gold may
increase. That could be a problem because he has already published his
catalog for a year ahead.
To lock in the price
level at which gold is presently being quoted for delivery in six months,
he buys a futures contract at a price of, say, $350 an ounce.
If, six months later,
the cash market price of gold has risen to $370, he will have to pay his
supplier that amount to acquire gold. However, the extra $20 an ounce cost
will be offset by a $20 an ounce profit when the futures contract bought at
$350 is sold for $370. In effect, the hedge provided insurance against an
increase in the price of gold. It locked in a net cost of $350, regardless
of what happened to the cash market price of gold. Had the price of gold
declined instead of risen, he would have incurred a loss on his futures
position but this would have been offset by the lower cost of acquiring
gold in the cash market.
The number and
variety of hedging possibilities is practically limitless. A cattle feeder
can hedge against a decline in livestock prices and a meat packer or
supermarket chain can hedge against an increase in livestock prices.
Borrowers can hedge against higher interest rates, and lenders against
lower interest rates. Investors can hedge against an overall decline in
stock prices, and those who anticipate having money to invest can hedge
against an increase in the over-all level of stock prices. And the list
goes on.
Whatever the hedging
strategy, the common denominator is that hedgers willingly give up the
opportunity to benefit from favorable price changes in order to achieve
protection against unfavorable price changes.
Back
to TOP
Speculators
Were you to speculate
in futures contracts, the person taking the opposite side of your trade on
any given occasion could be a hedger or it might well be another
speculator--someone whose opinion about the probable direction of prices
differs from your own.
The arithmetic of
speculation in futures contracts--including the opportunities it offers and
the risks it involves--will be discussed in detail later on. For now,
suffice it to say that speculators are individuals and firms who seek to
profit from anticipated increases or decreases in futures prices. In so
doing, they help provide the risk capital needed to facilitate hedging.
Someone who expects a
futures price to increase would purchase futures contracts in the hope of
later being able to sell them at a higher price. This is known as
"going long." Conversely, someone who expects a futures price to
decline would sell futures contracts in the hope of later being able to buy
back identical and offsetting contracts at a lower price. The practice of
selling futures contracts in anticipation of lower prices is known as
"going short." One of the attractive features of futures trading
is that it is equally easy to profit from declining prices (by selling) as
it is to profit from rising prices (by buying).
Back
to TOP
Floor
Traders
Persons known as
floor traders or locals, who buy and sell for their own accounts on the
trading floors of the exchanges, are the least known and understood of all
futures market participants. Yet their role is an important one. Like
specialists and market makers at securities exchanges, they help to provide
market liquidity. If there isn't a hedger or another speculator who is
immediately willing to take the other side of your order at or near the
going price, the chances are there will be an independent floor trader who
will do so, in the hope of minutes or even seconds later being able to make
an offsetting trade at a small profit. In the grain markets, for example,
there is frequently only one-fourth of a cent a bushel difference between
the prices at which a floor trader buys and sells.
Floor traders, of
course, have no guarantee they will realize a profit. They may end up
losing money on any given trade. Their presence, however, makes for more
liquid and competitive markets. It should be pointed out, however, that
unlike market makers or specialists, floor traders are not obligated to
maintain a liquid market or to take the opposite side of customer orders.
|
|
Reasons
for Buying futures contracts
|
Reasons
for Selling futures contracts
|
|
Hedgers
|
To lock in a
price and thereby obtain protection against rising prices
|
To lock in a
price and thereby obtain protection against declining prices
|
|
Speculators
and floor Traders
|
To profit from
rising prices
|
To profit from
declining prices
|
|
Back
to TOP
What is a Futures Contract?
There are two types
of futures contracts, those that provide for physical delivery of a
particular commodity or item and those which call for a cash settlement.
The month during which delivery or settlement is to occur is specified.
Thus, a July futures contract is one providing for delivery or settlement
in July.
It should be noted
that even in the case of delivery-type futures contracts,very few actually
result in delivery.* Not many speculators have the desire to take or make
delivery of, say, 5,000 bushels of wheat, or 112,000 pounds of sugar, or a
million dollars worth of U.S. Treasury bills for that matter. Rather, the
vast majority of speculators in futures markets choose to realize their
gains or losses by buying or selling offsetting futures contracts prior to
the delivery date. Selling a contract that was previously purchased
liquidates a futures position in exactly the same way, for example, that
selling 100 shares of IBM stock liquidates an earlier purchase of 100
shares of IBM stock. Similarly, a futures contract that was initially sold
can be liquidated by an offsetting purchase. In either case, gain or loss
is the difference between the buying price and the selling price.
Even hedgers
generally don't make or take delivery. Most, like the jewelry manufacturer
illustrated earlier, find it more convenient to liquidate their futures
positions and (if they realize a gain) use the money to offset whatever
adverse price change has occurred in the cash market.
* When delivery does
occur it is in the form of a negotiable instrument (such as a warehouse
receipt) that evidences the holder's ownership of the commodity, at some
designated location.
Back
to TOP
Why
Delivery?
Since delivery on
futures contracts is the exception rather than the rule, why do most
contracts even have a delivery provision? There are two reasons. One is
that it offers buyers and sellers the opportunity to take or make delivery
of the physical commodity if they so choose. More importantly, however, the
fact that buyers and sellers can take or make delivery helps to assure that
futures prices will accurately reflect the cash market value of the
commodity at the time the contract expires--i.e., that futures and cash
prices will eventually converge. It is convergence that makes hedging an
effective way to obtain protection against an adverse change in the cash
market price.*
* Convergence occurs
at the expiration of the futures contract because any difference between
the cash and futures prices would quickly be negated by profit-minded
investors who would buy the commodity in the lowest-price market and sell
it in the highest-price market until the price difference disappeared. This
is known as arbitrage and is a form of trading generally best left to
professionals in the cash and futures markets.
Cash settlement
futures contracts are precisely that, contracts which are settled in cash
rather than by delivery at the time the contract expires. Stock index
futures contracts, for example, are settled in cash on the basis of the
index number at the close of the final day of trading. There is no
provision for delivery of the shares of stock that make up the various
indexes. That would be impractical. With a cash settlement contract,
convergence is automatic.
Back
to TOP
The Process of Price Discovery
Futures prices
increase and decrease largely because of the myriad factors that influence
buyers' and sellers' judgments about what a particular commodity will be
worth at a given time in the future (anywhere from less than a month to
more than two years).
As new supply and
demand developments occur and as new and more current information becomes
available, these judgments are reassessed and the price of a particular
futures contract may be bid upward or downward. The process of
reassessment--of price discovery--is continuous.
Thus, in January, the
price of a July futures contract would reflect the consensus of buyers' and
sellers' opinions at that time as to what the value of a commodity or item
will be when the contract expires in July. On any given day, with the
arrival of new or more accurate information, the price of the July futures
contract might increase or decrease in response to changing expectations.
Competitive price
discovery is a major economic function--and, indeed, a major economic
benefit--of futures trading. The trading floor of a futures exchange is
where available information about the future value of a commodity or item
is translated into the language of price. In summary, futures prices are an
ever changing barometer of supply and demand and, in a dynamic market, the
only certainty is that prices will change.
Back
to TOP
After the Closing Bell
Once a closing bell
signals the end of a day's trading, the exchange's clearing organization
matches each purchase made that day with its corresponding sale and tallies
each member firm's gains or losses based on that day's price changes--a
massive undertaking considering that nearly two-thirds of a million futures
contracts are bought and sold on an average day. Each firm, in turn,
calculates the gains and losses for each of its customers having futures
contracts.
Gains and losses on
futures contracts are not only calculated on a daily basis, they are
credited and deducted on a daily basis. Thus, if a speculator were to have,
say, a $300 profit as a result of the day's price changes, that amount
would be immediately credited to his brokerage account and, unless required
for other purposes, could be withdrawn. On the other hand, if the day's
price changes had resulted in a $300 loss, his account would be immediately
debited for that amount.
The process just
described is known as a daily cash settlement and is an important feature
of futures trading. As will be seen when we discuss margin requirements, it
is also the reason a customer who incurs a loss on a futures position may
be called on to deposit additional funds to his account.
Back
to TOP
The Arithmetic of Futures Trading
To say that gains and
losses in futures trading are the result of price changes is an accurate
explanation but by no means a complete explanation. Perhaps more so than in
any other form of speculation or investment, gains and losses in futures
trading are highly leveraged. An understanding of leverage--and of how it
can work to your advantage or disadvantage--is crucial to an understanding
of futures trading.
As mentioned in the
introduction, the leverage of futures trading stems from the fact that only
a relatively small amount of money (known as initial margin) is required to
buy or sell a futures contract. On a particular day, a margin deposit of only
$1,000 might enable you to buy or sell a futures contract covering $25,000
worth of soybeans. Or for $10,000, you might be able to purchase a futures
contract covering common stocks worth $260,000. The smaller the margin in
relation to the value of the futures contract, the greater the leverage.
If you speculate in
futures contracts and the price moves in the direction you anticipated,
high leverage can produce large profits in relation to your initial margin.
Conversely, if prices move in the opposite direction, high leverage can
produce large losses in relation to your initial margin. Leverage is a
two-edged sword.
For example, assume
that in anticipation of rising stock prices you buy one June S&P 500
stock index futures contract at a time when the June index is trading at
1000. And assume your initial margin requirement is $10,000. Since the
value of the futures contract is $250 times the index, each 1 point change
in the index represents a $250 gain or loss.
Thus, an increase in
the index from 1000 to 1040 would double your $10,000 margin deposit and a
decrease from 1000 to 960 would wipe it out. That's a 100% gain or loss as
the result of only a 4% change in the stock index!
Said another way,
while buying (or selling) a futures contract provides exactly the same
dollars and cents profit potential as owning (or selling short) the actual
commodities or items covered by the contract, low margin requirements
sharply increase the percentage profit or loss potential. For example, it
can be one thing to have the value of your portfolio of common stocks
decline from $100,000 to $96,000 (a 4% loss) but quite another (at least
emotionally) to deposit $10,000 as margin for a futures contract and end up
losing that much or more as the result of only a 4% price decline. Futures
trading thus requires not only the necessary financial resources but also
the necessary financial and emotional temperament.
Back
to TOP
Trading
An absolute requisite
for anyone considering trading in futures contracts--whether it's sugar or
stock indexes, pork bellies or petroleum--is to clearly understand the
concept of leverage as well as the amount of gain or loss that will result
from any given change in the futures price of the particular futures contract
you would be trading. If you cannot afford the risk, or even if you are
uncomfortable with the risk, the only sound advice is don't trade. Futures
trading is not for everyone.
Back
to TOP
Margins
As is apparent from
the preceding discussion, the arithmetic of leverage is the arithmetic of
margins. An understanding of margins--and of the several different kinds of
margin--is essential to an understanding of futures trading.
If your previous
investment experience has mainly involved common stocks, you know that the
term margin--as used in connection with securities--has to do with the cash
down payment and money borrowed from a broker to purchase stocks. But used
in connection with futures trading, margin has an altogether different
meaning and serves an altogether different purpose.
Rather than providing
a down payment, the margin required to buy or sell a futures contract is
solely a deposit of good faith money that can be drawn on by your brokerage
firm to cover losses that you may incur in the course of futures trading.
It is much like money held in an escrow account. Minimum margin
requirements for a particular futures contract at a particular time are set
by the exchange on which the contract is traded. They are typically about
five percent of the current value of the futures contract. Exchanges
continuously monitor market conditions and risks and, as necessary, raise
or reduce their margin requirements. Individual brokerage firms may require
higher margin amounts from their customers than the exchange-set minimums.
There are two
margin-related terms you should know: Initial margin and maintenance
margin.
Initial margin
(sometimes called original margin) is the sum of money that the customer
must deposit with the brokerage firm for each futures contract to be bought
or sold. On any day that profits accrue on your open positions, the profits
will be added to the balance in your margin account. On any day losses
accrue, the losses will be deducted from the balance in your margin
account.
If and when the funds
remaining available in your margin account are reduced by losses to below a
certain level--known as the maintenance margin requirement--your broker
will require that you deposit additional funds to bring the account back to
the level of the initial margin. Or, you may also be asked for additional
margin if the exchange or your brokerage firm raises its margin
requirements. Requests for additional margin are known as margin calls.
Assume, for example,
that the initial margin needed to buy or sell a particular futures contract
is $2,000 and that the maintenance margin requirement is $1,500. Should
losses on open positions reduce the funds remaining in your trading account
to, say, $1,400 (an amount less than the maintenance requirement), you will
receive a margin call for the $600 needed to restore your account to
$2,000.
Before trading in
futures contracts, be sure you understand the brokerage firm's Margin
Agreement and know how and when the firm expects margin calls to be met.
Some firms may require only that you mail a personal check. Others may
insist you wire transfer funds from your bank or provide same-day or
next-day delivery of a certified or cashier's check. If margin calls are
not met in the prescribed time and form, the firm can protect itself by
liquidating your open positions at the available market price (possibly
resulting in an unsecured loss for which you would be liable).
Back
to TOP
Basic Trading Strategies
Even if you should
decide to participate in futures trading in a way that doesn't involve
having to make day-to-day trading decisions (such as a managed account or
commodity pool), it is nonetheless useful to understand the dollars and
cents of how futures trading gains and losses are realized. And, of course,
if you intend to trade your own account, such an understanding is
essential.
Dozens of different
strategies and variations of strategies are employed by futures traders in
pursuit of speculative profits. Here is a brief description and
illustration of several basic strategies. Buying (Going Long) to Profit
from an Expected Price Increase
Someone expecting the
price of a particular commodity or item to increase over from a given
period of time can seek to profit by buying futures contracts. If correct
in forecasting the direction and timing of the price change, the futures
contract can later be sold for the higher price, thereby yielding a
profit.* If the price declines rather than increases, the trade will result
in a loss. Because of leverage, the gain or loss may be greater than the
initial margin deposit.
For example, assume
it's now January, the July soybean futures contract is presently quoted at
$6.00, and over the coming months you expect the price to increase. You
decide to deposit the required initial margin of, say, $1,500 and buy one
July soybean futures contract. Further assume that by April the July
soybean futures price has risen to $6.40 and you decide to take your profit
by selling. Since each contract is for 5,000 bushels, your 40-cent a bushel
profit would be 5,000 bushels x 40 cents or $2,000 less transaction costs.
|
|
|
Price
per bushel
|
Value
of 5,000 bushel contract
|
|
January
|
Buy 1 July
soybean futures contract
|
$6.00
|
$30,000
|
|
April
|
Sell 1 July
soybean futures contract
|
$6.40
|
$32,000
|
|
|
Gain
|
$ .40
|
$ 2,000
|
|
* For
simplicity examples do not take into account commissions and other
transaction costs. These costs are important, however, and you should be
sure you fully understand them. Suppose, however, that rather than rising
to $6.40, the July soybean futures price had declined to $5.60 and that, in
order to avoid the possibility of further loss, you elect to sell the
contract at that price. On 5,000 bushels your 40-cent a bushel loss would
thus come to $2,000 plus transaction costs.
|
|
|
Price
per bushel
|
Value
of 5,000 bushel contract
|
|
January
|
Buy 1 July
soybean futures contract
|
$6.00
|
$30,000
|
|
April
|
Sell 1 July bean
futures contract
|
$5.60
|
$28,000
|
|
|
Loss
|
$ .40
|
$ 2,000
|
|
Note that the loss in this example exceeded your $1,500 initial margin.
Your broker would then call upon you, as needed, for additional margin
funds to cover the loss. (Going short) to profit from an expected price
decrease The only way going short to profit from an expected price decrease
differs from going long to profit from an expected price increase is the
sequence of the trades. Instead of first buying a futures contract, you
first sell a futures contract. If, as expected, the price declines, a
profit can be realized by later purchasing an offsetting futures contract
at the lower price. The gain per unit will be the amount by which the
purchase price is below the earlier selling price. For example, assume that
in January your research or other available information indicates a
probable decrease in cattle prices over the next several months. In the
hope of profiting, you deposit an initial margin of $2,000 and sell one
April live cattle futures contract at a price of, say, 65 cents a pound.
Each contract is for 40,000 pounds, meaning each 1 cent a pound change in price
will increase or decrease the value of the futures contract by $400. If, by
March, the price has declined to 60 cents a pound, an offsetting futures
contract can be purchased at 5 cents a pound below the original selling
price. On the 40,000 pound contract, that's a gain of 5 cents x 40,000 lbs.
or $2,000 less transaction costs.
|
|
|
Price
per pound
|
Value
of 40,000 pound contract
|
|
January
|
Sell 1 April
livecattle futures contract
|
65 cents
|
$26,000
|
|
March
|
Buy 1 April live
cattle futures contract
|
60 cents
|
$24,000
|
|
|
Gain
|
5 cents
|
$ 2,000
|
|
Assume you
were wrong. Instead of decreasing, the April live cattle futures price
increases--to, say, 70 cents a pound by the time in March when you
eventually liquidate your short futures position through an offsetting
purchase. The outcome would be as follows:
|
|
|
Price
per pound
|
Value
of 40,000 pound contract
|
|
January
|
Sell 1 April live
cattle futures contract
|
65 cents
|
$26,000
|
|
March
|
Buy 1 April live
cattle futures contract
|
70 cents
|
$28,000
|
|
|
Loss
|
5 cents
|
$ 2,000
|
|
In this example, the
loss of 5 cents a pound on the futures transaction resulted in a total loss
of the $2,000 you deposited as initial margin plus transaction costs.
Back
to TOP
Spreads
While most
speculative futures transactions involve a simple purchase of futures
contracts to profit from an expected price increase--or an equally simple
sale to profit from an expected price decrease--numerous other possible
strategies exist. Spreads are one example. A spread, at least in its
simplest form, involves buying one futures contract and selling another
futures contract. The purpose is to profit from an expected change in the
relationship between the purchase price of one and the selling price of the
other. As an illustration, assume it's now November, that the March wheat
futures price is presently $3.10 a bushel and the May wheat futures price
is presently $3.15 a bushel, a difference of 5 cents. Your analysis of
market conditions indicates that, over the next few months, the price
difference between the two contracts will widen to become greater than 5
cents. To profit if you are right, you could sell the March futures
contract (the lower priced contract) and buy the May futures contract (the
higher priced contract). Assume time and events prove you right and that,
by February, the March futures price has risen to $3.20 and May futures
price is $3.35, a difference of 15 cents. By liquidating both contracts at
this time, you can realize a net gain of 10 cents a bushel. Since each
contract is 5,000 bushels, the total gain is $500.
|
November
|
Sell March wheat
|
Buy May wheat
|
Spread
|
|
|
$3.10 Bu.
|
$3.15 Bu.
|
5 cents
|
|
February
|
Buy March wheat
|
Sell May wheat
|
|
|
|
$3.20
|
$3.35
|
15 cents
|
|
|
$ .10 loss
|
$ .20 gain
|
|
|
Net gain
10 cents Bu. Gain on 5,000 Bu. contract $500 Had the spread (i.e. the price
difference) narrowed by 10 cents a bushel rather than widened by 10 cents a
bushel the transactions just illustrated would have resulted in a loss of
$500. Virtually unlimited numbers and types of spread possibilities exist,
as do many other, even more complex futures trading strategies. These,
however, are beyond the scope of an introductory booklet and should be
considered only by someone who well understands the risk/reward arithmetic
involved.
Back
to TOP
Participating in Futures Trading
Now that you have an
overview of what futures markets are, why they exist and how they work, the
next step is to consider various ways in which you may be able to
participate in futures trading. There are a number of alternatives and the
only best alternative--if you decide to participate at all--is whichever
one is best for you. Also discussed is the opening of a futures trading
account, the regulatory safeguards provided participants in futures
markets, and methods for resolving disputes, should they arise.
Back
to TOP
Deciding How to Participate
At the risk of
oversimplification, choosing a method of participation is largely a matter
of deciding how directly and extensively you, personally, want to be
involved in making trading decisions and managing your account. Many
futures traders prefer to do their own research and analysis and make their
own decisions about what and when to buy and sell. That is, they manage
their own futures trades in much the same way they would manage their own
stock portfolios. Others choose to rely on or at least consider the
recommendations of a brokerage firm or account executive. Some purchase
independent trading advice. Others would rather have someone else be
responsible for trading their account and therefore give trading authority
to their broker. Still others purchase an interest in a commodity trading
pool. There's no formula for deciding. Your decision should, however, take
into account such things as your knowledge of and any previous experience
in futures trading, how much time and attention you are able to devote to
trading, the amount of capital you can afford to commit to futures, and, by
no means least, your individual temperament and tolerance for risk. The
latter is important. Some individuals thrive on being directly involved in
the fast pace of futures trading, others are unable, reluctant, or lack the
time to make the immediate decisions that are frequently required. Some
recognize and accept the fact that futures trading all but inevitably
involves having some losing trades. Others lack the necessary disposition
or discipline to acknowledge that they were wrong on this particular
occasion and liquidate the position. Many experienced traders thus suggest
that, of all the things you need to know before trading in futures
contracts, one of the most important is to know yourself. This can help you
make the right decision about whether to participate at all and, if so, in
what way. In no event, it bears repeating, should you participate in
futures trading unless the capital you would commit its risk capital. That
is, capital which, in pursuit of larger profits, you can afford to lose. It
should be capital over and above that needed for necessities, emergencies,
savings and achieving your long-term investment objectives. You should also
understand that, because of the leverage involved in futures, the profit
and loss fluctuations may be wider than in most types of investment
activity and you may be required to cover deficiencies due to losses over
and above what you had expected to commit to futures.
Back
to TOP
Trade
Your Own Account
This involves opening
your individual trading account and--with or without the recommendations of
the brokerage firm--making your own trading decisions. You will also be
responsible for assuring that adequate funds are on deposit with the
brokerage firm for margin purposes, or that such funds are promptly
provided as needed. Practically all of the major brokerage firms you are
familiar with, and many you may not be familiar with, have departments or
even separate divisions to serve clients who want to allocate some portion
of their investment capital to futures trading. All brokerage firms
conducting futures business with the public must be registered with the
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC, the independent regulatory
agency of the federal government that administers the Commodity Exchange
Act) as Futures Commission Merchants or Introducing Brokers and must be
Members of National Futures Association (NFA, the industrywide
self-regulatory association). Different firms offer different services.
Some, for example, have extensive research departments and can provide
current information and analysis concerning market developments as well as
specific trading suggestions. Others tailor their services to clients who
prefer to make market judgments and arrive at trading decisions on their
own. Still others offer various combinations of these and other services.
An individual trading account can be opened either directly with a Futures
Commission Merchant or indirectly through an Introducing Broker. Whichever
course you choose, the account itself will be carried by a Futures
Commission Merchant, as will your money. Introducing Brokers do not accept
or handle customer funds but most offer a variety of trading-related
services. Futures Commission Merchants are required to maintain the funds
and property of their customers in segregated accounts, separate from the
firm's own money. Along with the particular services a firm provides,
discuss the commissions and trading costs that will be involved. And, as
mentioned, clearly understand how the firm requires that any margin calls
be met. If you have a question about whether a firm is properly registered
with the CFTC and is a Member of NFA, you can (and should) contact NFA's
Information Center toll-free at 800-621-3570 (within Illinois call
800-572-9400).
Back
to TOP
Have
Someone Manage Your Account
A managed account is
also your individual account. The major difference is that you give someone
else--an account manager--written power of attorney to make and execute
decisions about what and when to trade. He or she will have discretionary
authority to buy or sell for your account or will contact you for approval
to make trades he or she suggests. You, of course, remain fully responsible
for any losses which may be incurred and, as necessary, for meeting margin
calls, including making up any deficiencies that exceed your margin
deposits. Although an account manager is likely to be managing the accounts
of other persons at the same time, there is no sharing of gains or losses
of other customers. Trading gains or losses in your account will result
solely from trades which were made for your account. Many Futures
Commission Merchants and Introducing Brokers accept managed accounts. In
most instances, the amount of money needed to open a managed account is
larger than the amount required to establish an account you intend to trade
yourself. Different firms and account managers, however, have different
requirements and the range can be quite wide. Be certain to read and
understand all of the literature and agreements you receive from the
broker. Some account managers have their own trading approaches and accept
only clients to whom that approach is acceptable. Others tailor their
trading to a client's objectives. In either case, obtain enough information
and ask enough questions to assure yourself that your money will be managed
in a way that's consistent with your goals. Discuss fees. In addition to
commissions on trades made for your account, it is not uncommon for account
managers to charge a management fee, and/or there may be some arrangement
for the manager to participate in the net profits that his management
produces. These charges are required to be fully disclosed in advance. Make
sure you know about every charge to be made to your account and what each
charge is for. While there can be no assurance that past performance will
be indicative of future performance, it can be useful to inquire about the
track record of an account manager you are considering. Account managers
associated with a Futures Commission Merchant or Introducing Broker must
generally meet certain experience requirements if the account is to be
traded on a discretionary basis. Finally, take note of whether the account
management agreement includes a provision to automatically liquidate
positions and close out the account if and when losses exceed a certain
amount. And, of course, you should know and agree on what will be done with
profits, and what, if any, restrictions apply to withdrawals from the
account.
Back
to TOP
Use
a Commodity Trading Advisor
As the term implies,
a Commodity Trading Advisor is an individual (or firm) that, for a fee,
provides advice on commodity trading, including specific trading recommendations
such as when to establish a particular long or short position and when to
liquidate that position. Generally, to help you choose trading strategies
that match your trading objectives, advisors offer analyses and judgments
as to the prospective rewards and risks of the trades they suggest. Trading
recommendations may be communicated by phone, wire or mail. Some offer the
opportunity for you to phone when you have questions and some provide a
frequently updated hotline you can call for a recording of current
information and trading advice. Even though you may trade on the basis of
an advisor's recommendations, you will need to open your own account with,
and send your margin payments directly to, a Futures Commission Merchant.
Commodity Trading Advisors cannot accept or handle their customers funds
unless they are also registered as Futures Commission Merchants. Some
Commodity Trading Advisors offer managed accounts. The account itself,
however, must still be with a Futures Commission Merchant and in your name,
with the advisor designated in writing to make and execute trading
decisions on a discretionary basis. CFTC Regulations require that Commodity
Trading Advisors provide their customers, in advance, with what is called a
Disclosure Document. Read it carefully and ask the Commodity Trading
Advisor to explain any points you don't understand. If your money is
important to you, so is the information contained in the Disclosure
Document! The prospectus-like document contains information about the advisor,
his experience and, by no means least, his current (and any previous)
performance records. If you use an advisor to manage your account, he must
first obtain a signed acknowledgment from you that you have received and
understood the Disclosure Document. As in any method of participating in
futures trading, discuss and understand the advisor's fee arrangements. And
if he will be managing your account, ask the same questions you would ask
of any account manager you are considering. Commodity Trading Advisors must
be registered as such with the CFTC, and those that accept authority to
manage customer accounts must also be Members of NFA. You can verify that
these requirements have been met by calling NFA toll-free at 800-621-3570
(within Illinois call 800-572-9400).
Back
to TOP
Participate
in Commodity Pool
Another alternative
method of participating in futures trading is through a commodity pool,
which is similar in concept to a common stock mutual fund. It is the only
method of participation in which you will not have your own individual
trading account. Instead, your money will be combined with that of other
pool participants and, in effect, traded as a single account. You share in
the profits or losses of the pool in proportion to your investment in the
pool. One potential advantage is greater diversification of risks than you
might obtain if you were to establish your own trading account. Another is
that your risk of loss is generally limited to your investment in the pool,
because most pools are formed as limited partnerships. And you won't be
subject to margin calls. Bear in mind, however, that the risks which a pool
incurs in any given futures transaction are no different than the risks
incurred by an individual trader. The pool still trades in futures
contracts which are highly leveraged and in markets which can be highly
volatile. And like an individual trader, the pool can suffer substantial
losses as well as realize substantial profits. A major consideration,
therefore, is who will be managing the pool in terms of directing its
trading. While a pool must execute all of its trades through a brokerage
firm which is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant, it
may or may not have any other affiliation with the brokerage firm. Some
brokerage firms, to serve those customers who prefer to participate in
commodity trading through a pool, either operate or have a relationship
with one or more commodity trading pools. Other pools operate
independently. A Commodity Pool Operator cannot accept your money until it
has provided you with a Disclosure Document that contains information about
the pool operator, the pool's principals and any outside persons who will
be providing trading advice or making trading decisions. It must also
disclose the previous performance records, if any, of all persons who will
be operating or advising the pool lot, if none, a statement to that
effect). Disclosure Documents contain important information and should be
carefully read before you invest your money. Another requirement is that
the Disclosure Document advise you of the risks involved. In the case of a
new pool, there is frequently a provision that the pool will not begin
trading until (and unless) a certain amount of money is raised. Normally, a
time deadline is set and the Commodity Pool Operator is required to state
in the Disclosure Document what that deadline is (or, if there is none,
that the time period for raising, funds is indefinite). Be sure you
understand the terms, including how your money will be invested in the
meantime, what interest you will earn (if any), and how and when your
investment will be returned in the event the pool does not commence
trading. Determine whether you will be responsible for any losses in excess
of your investment in the pool. If so, this must be indicated prominently
at the beginning of the pool's Disclosure Document. Ask about fees and
other costs, including what, if any, initial charges will be made against
your investment for organizational or administrative expenses. Such
information should be noted in the Disclosure Document. You should also
determine from the Disclosure Document how the pool's operator and advisor
are compensated. Understand, too, the procedure for redeeming your shares
in the pool, any restrictions that may exist, and provisions for
liquidating and dissolving the pool if more than a certain percentage of
the capital were to be lost, Ask about the pool operator's general trading
philosophy, what types of contracts will be traded, whether they will be
day-traded, etc. With few exceptions, Commodity Pool Operators must be
registered with the CFTC and be Members of NFA. You can verify that these
requirements have been met by contacting NFA toll-free at 800-621-3570
(within Illinois call 800-572-9400).
Back
to TOP
Regulation of Futures Trading
Firms and individuals
that conduct futures trading business with the public are subject to
regulation by the CFTC and by NFA. All futures exchanges are also regulated
by the CFTC. NFA is a congressionally authorized self-regulatory
organization subject to CFTC oversight. It exercises regulatory authority
with the CFTC over Futures Commission Merchants, Introducing Brokers,
Commodity Trading Advisors, Commodity Pool Operators and Associated Persons
(salespersons) of all of the foregoing. The NFA staff consists of more than
140 field auditors and investigators. In addition, NFA has the
responsibility for registering persons and firms that are required to be
registered with the CFTC. Firms and individuals that violate NFA rules of
professional ethics and conduct or that fail to comply with strictly
enforced financial and record-keeping requirements can, if circumstances
warrant, be permanently barred from engaging in any futures-related
business with the public. The enforcement powers of the CFTC are similar to
those of other major federal regulatory agencies, including the power to
seek criminal prosecution by the Department of Justice where circumstances
warrant such action. Futures Commission Merchants which are members of an
exchange are subject to not only CFTC and NFA regulation but to regulation
by the exchanges of which they are members. Exchange regulatory staffs are
responsible, subject to CFTC oversight, for the business conduct and
financial responsibility of their member firms. Violations of exchange
rules can result in substantial fines, suspension or revocation of trading
privileges, and loss of exchange membership.
Back
to TOP
Words
of Caution
It is generally
against the law for any person or firm to offer futures contracts for
purchase or sale unless those contracts are traded on one of the nation's
regulated futures exchanges and unless the person or firm is registered
with the CFTC. Moreover, persons and firms conducting futures-related
business with the public must be Members of NFA. Thus, you should be
extremely cautious if approached by someone attempting to sell you a
commodity-related investment unless you are able to verify that the offeror
is registered with the CFTC and is a Member of NFA. In a number of cases,
sellers of illegal off-exchange futures contracts have labeled their
investments by different names--such as "deferred delivery,"
"forward" or "partial payment" contracts--in an attempt
to avoid the strict laws applicable to regulated futures trading. Many
operate out of telephone boiler rooms, employ high-pressure and misleading
sales tactics, and may state that they are exempt from registration and
regulatory requirements. This, in itself, should be reason enough to
conduct a check before you write a check. You can quickly verify whether a
particular firm or person is currently registered with the CFTC and is an
NFA Member by phoning NFA toll-free at 800-621-3570 (within Illinois call
800-572-9400).
Back
to TOP
Establishing an Account
At the time you apply
to establish a futures trading account, you can expect to be asked for
certain information beyond simply your name, address and phone number. The
requested information will generally include (but not necessarily be
limited to) your income, net worth, what previous investment or futures
trading experience you have had, and any other information needed in order
to advise you of the risks involved in trading futures contracts. At a
minimum, the person or firm who will handle your account is required to
provide you with risk disclosure documents or statements specified by the
CFTC and obtain written acknowledgment that you have received and
understood them. Opening a futures account is a serious decision--no less
so than making any major financial investment--and should obviously be
approached as such. Just as you wouldn't consider buying a car or a house
without carefully reading and understanding the terms of the contract,
neither should you establish a trading account without first reading and
understanding the Account Agreement and all other documents supplied by
your broker. It is in your interest and the firm's interest that you
clearly know your rights and obligations as well as the rights and
obligations of the firm with which you are dealing before you enter into
any futures transaction. If you have questions about exactly what any
provisions of the Agreement mean, don't hesitate to ask. A good and
continuing relationship can exist only if both parties have, from the
outset, a clear understanding of the relationship. Nor should you be
hesitant to ask, in advance, what services you will be getting for the
trading commissions the firm charges. As indicated earlier, not all firms
offer identical services. And not all clients have identical needs. If it
is important to you, for example, you might inquire about the firm's
research capability, and whatever reports it makes available to clients.
Other subjects of inquiry could be how transaction and statement
information will be provided, and how your orders will be handled and
executed.
Back
to TOP
If a
Dispute Should Arise
All but a small
percentage of transactions involving regulated futures contracts take place
without problems or misunderstandings. However, in any business in which
some 150 million or more contracts are traded each year, occasional
disagreements are inevitable. Obviously, the best way to resolve a
disagreement is through direct discussions by the parties involved. Failing
this, however, participants in futures markets have several alternatives
(unless some particular method has been agreed to in advance). Under
certain circumstances, it may be possible to seek resolution through the
exchange where the futures contracts were traded. Or a claim for
reparations may be filed with the CFTC. However, a newer, generally faster
and less expensive alternative is to apply to resolve the disagreement
through the arbitration program conducted by National Futures Association.
There are several advantages:
- You can elect, if you
prefer, to have arbitrators who have no connection with the futures
industry.
- You do not have to allege
or prove that any law or rule was broken only that you were dealt with
improperly or unfairly.
- In some cases, it may be
possible to conduct arbitration entirely through written submissions.
If a hearing is required, it can generally be scheduled at a time and
place convenient for both parties.
- Unless you wish to do so,
you do not have to employ an attorney.
For a plain language
explanation of the arbitration program and how it works, write or phone NFA
for a copy of Arbitration: A Way to Resolve Futures-Related Disputes. The
booklet is available at no cost.
Back
to TOP
What to Look for in a Futures Contract?
Whatever type of
investment you are considering--including but not limited to futures
contracts--it makes sense to begin by obtaining as much information as
possible about that particular investment. The more you know in advance,
the less likely there will be surprises later on. Moreover, even among
futures contracts, there are important differences which--because they can
affect your investment results--should be taken into account in making your
investment decisions.
The Contract Unit
Delivery-type futures
contracts stipulate the specifications of the commodity to be delivered
(such as 5,000 bushels of grain, 40,000 pounds of livestock, or 100 troy
ounces of gold). Foreign currency futures provide for delivery of a
specified number of marks, francs, yen, pounds or pesos. U.S. Treasury
obligation futures are in terms of instruments having a stated face value
(such as $100,000 or $1 million) at maturity. Futures contracts that call
for cash settlement rather than delivery are based on a given index number
times a specified dollar multiple. This is the case, for example, with
stock index futures. Whatever the yardstick, it's important to know
precisely what it is you would be buying or selling, and the quantity you
would be buying or selling.
Back
to TOP
How Prices are Quoted
Futures prices are
usually quoted the same way prices are quoted in the cash market (where a
cash market exists). That is, in dollars, cents, and sometimes fractions of
a cent, per bushel, pound or ounce; also in dollars, cents and increments
of a cent for foreign currencies; and in points and percentages of a point
for financial instruments. Cash settlement contract prices are quoted in
terms of an index number, usually stated to two decimal points. Be certain
you understand the price quotation system for the particular futures
contract you are considering.
Back
to TOP
Minimum Price Changes
Exchanges establish
the minimum amount that the price can fluctuate upward or downward. This is
known as the "tick" For example, each tick for grain is 0.25
cents per bushel. On a 5,000 bushel futures contract, that's $12.50. On a
gold futures contract, the tick is 10 cents per ounce, which on a 100 ounce
contract is $10. You'll want to familiarize yourself with the minimum price
fluctuation--the tick size--for whatever futures contracts you plan to
trade. And, of course, you'll need to know how a price change of any given
amount will affect the value of the contract.
Back
to TOP
Daily Price Limits
Exchanges establish
daily price limits for trading in futures contracts. The limits are stated
in terms of the previous day's closing price plus and minus so many cents
or dollars per trading unit. Once a futures price has increased by its
daily limit, there can be no trading at any higher price until the next day
of trading. Conversely, once a futures price has declined by its daily
limit, there can be no trading at any lower price until the next day of
trading. Thus, if the daily limit for a particular grain is currently 10
cents a bushel and the previous day's settlement price was $3.00, there can
not be trading during the current day at any price below $2.90 or above
$3.10. The price is allowed to increase or decrease by the limit amount
each day. For some contracts, daily price limits are eliminated during the
month in which the contract expires. Because prices can become particularly
volatile during the expiration month (also called the "delivery"
or "spot" month), persons lacking experience in futures trading
may wish to liquidate their positions prior to that time. Or, at the very
least, trade cautiously and with an understanding of the risks which may be
involved. Daily price limits set by the exchanges are subject to change.
They can, for example, be increased once the market price has increased or
decreased by the existing limit for a given number of successive days.
Because of daily price limits, there may be occasions when it is not
possible to liquidate an existing futures position at will. In this event,
possible alternative strategies should be discussed with a broker
Back
to TOP
Position Limits
Although the average
trader is unlikely to ever approach them, exchanges and the CFTC establish
limits on the maximum speculative position that any one person can have at
one time in any one futures contract. The purpose is to prevent one buyer
or seller from being able to exert undue influence on the price in either
the establishment or liquidation of positions. Position limits are stated
in number of contracts or total units of the commodity. The easiest way to
obtain the types of information just discussed is to ask your broker or
other advisor to provide you with a copy of the contract specifications for
the specific futures contracts you are thinking about trading. Or you can
obtain the information from the exchange where the contract is traded.
Back
to TOP
Understanding (and Managing) the Risks of Futures Trading
Anyone buying or
selling futures contracts should clearly understand that the Risks of any
given transaction may result in a Futures Trading loss. The loss may exceed
not only the amount of the initial margin but also the entire amount
deposited in the account or more. Moreover, while there are a number of
steps which can be taken in an effort to limit the size of possible losses,
there can be no guarantees that these steps will prove effective.
Well-informed futures traders should, nonetheless, be familiar with
available risk management possibilities.
Back
to TOP
Choosing a Futures Contract
Just as different
common stocks or different bonds may involve different degrees of probable
risk. and reward at a particular time, so may different futures contracts.
The market for one commodity may, at present, be highly volatile, perhaps
because of supply-demand uncertainties which--depending on future
developments--could suddenly propel prices sharply higher or sharply lower.
The market for some other commodity may currently be less volatile, with
greater likelihood that prices will fluctuate in a narrower range. You
should be able to evaluate and choose the futures contracts that
appear--based on present information--most likely to meet your objectives
and willingness to accept risk. Keep in mind, however, that neither past
nor even present price behavior provides assurance of what will occur in
the future. Prices that have been relatively stable may become highly
volatile (which is why many individuals and firms choose to hedge against
unforeseeable price changes).
Back
to TOP
Liquidity
There can be no
ironclad assurance that, at all times, a liquid market will exist for
offsetting a futures contract that you have previously bought or sold. This
could be the case if, for example, a futures price has increased or
decreased by the maximum allowable daily limit and there is no one
presently willing to buy the futures contract you want to sell or sell the
futures contract you want to buy. Even on a day-to-day basis, some
contracts and some delivery months tend to be more actively traded and
liquid than others. Two useful indicators of liquidity are the volume of
trading and the open interest (the number of open futures positions still
remaining to be liquidated by an offsetting trade or satisfied by
delivery). These figures are usually reported in newspapers that carry
futures quotations. The information is also available from your broker or
advisor and from the exchange where the contract is traded.
Back
to TOP
Timing
In futures trading,
being right about the direction of prices isn't enough. It is also
necessary to anticipate the timing of price changes. The reason, of course,
is that an adverse price change may, in the short run, result in a greater
loss than you are willing to accept in the hope of eventually being proven
right in the long run. Example: In January, you deposit initial margin of
$1,500 to buy a May wheat futures contract at $3.30--anticipating that, by
spring, the price will climb to $3.50 or higher. No sooner than you buy the
contract, the price drops to $3.15, a loss of $750. To avoid the risk of a
further loss, you have your broker liquidate the position. The possibility
that the price may now recover--and even climb to $3.50 or above--is of no
consolation. The lesson to be learned is that deciding when to buy or sell
a futures contract can be as important as deciding what futures contract to
buy or sell. In fact, it can be argued that timing is the key to successful
futures trading.
Back
to TOP
Stop Orders
A stop order is an
order, placed with your broker, to buy or sell a particular futures
contract at the market price if and when the price reaches a specified
level. Stop orders are often used by futures traders in an effort to limit
the amount they. might lose if the futures price moves against their
position. For example, were you to purchase a crude oil futures contract at
$21.00 a barrel and wished to limit your loss to $1.00 a barrel, you might
place a stop order to sell an off-setting contract if the price should fall
to, say, $20.00 a barrel. If and when the market reaches whatever price you
specify, a stop order becomes an order to execute the desired trade at the
best price immediately obtainable. There can be no guarantee, however, that
it will be possible under all market conditions to execute the order at the
price specified. In an active, volatile market, the market price may be
declining (or rising) so rapidly that there is no opportunity to liquidate
your position at the stop price you have designated. Under these
circumstances, the broker's only obligation is to execute your order at the
best price that is available. In the event that prices have risen or fallen
by the maximum daily limit, and there is presently no trading in the
contract (known as a "lock limit" market), it may not be possible
to execute your order at any price. In addition, although it happens
infrequently, it is possible that markets may be lock limit for more than
one day, resulting in substantial losses to futures traders who may find it
impossible to liquidate losing futures positions. Subject to the kinds of
limitations just discussed, stop orders can nonetheless provide a useful
tool for the futures trader who seeks to limit his losses. Far more often
than not, it will be possible. for the broker to execute a stop order at or
near the specified price. In addition to providing a way to limit losses,
stop orders can also be employed to protect profits. For instance, if you
have bought crude oil futures at $21.00 a barrel and the price is now at
$24.00 a barrel, you might wish to place a stop order to sell if and when
the price declines to $23.00. This (again subject to the described
limitations of stop orders) could protect $2.00 of your existing $3.00
profit while still allowing you to benefit from any continued increase in
price.
Back
to TOP
Spreads
Spreads involve the
purchase of one futures contract and the sale of a different futures
contract in the hope of profiting from a widening or narrowing of the price
difference. Because gains and losses occur only as the result of a change
in the price difference--rather than as a result of a change in the overall
level of futures prices--spreads are often considered more conservative and
less risky than having an outright long or short futures position. In
general, this may be the case. It should be recognized, though, that the
loss from a spread can be as great as--or even greater than--that which
might be incurred in having an outright futures position. An adverse
widening or narrowing of the spread during a particular time period may
exceed the change in the overall level of futures prices, and it is
possible to experience losses on both of the futures contracts involved
(that is, on both legs of the spread).
Back
to TOP
Options on Futures Contracts
What are known as put
and call options are being traded on a growing number of futures contracts.
The principal attraction of buying options is that they make it possible to
speculate on increasing or decreasing futures prices with a known and
limited risk. The most that the buyer of an option can lose is the cost of
purchasing the option (known as the option "premium") plus
transaction costs. Options can be most easily understood when call options
and put options are considered separately, since, in fact, they are totally
separate and distinct. Buying or selling a call in no way involves a put,
and buying or selling a put in no way involves a call.
Back
to TOP
Buying Call Options
The buyer of a call
option acquires the right but not the obligation to purchase (go long) a
particular futures contract at a specified price at any time during the
life of the option. Each option specifies the futures contract which may be
purchased (known as the "underlying" futures contract) and the
price at which it can be purchased (known as the "exercise" or
"strike" price). A March Treasury bond 84 call option would
convey the right to buy one March U.S. Treasury bond futures contract at a
price of $84,000 at any time during the life of the option. One reason for
buying call options is to profit from an anticipated increase in the
underlying futures price. A call option buyer will realize a net profit if,
upon exercise, the underlying futures price is above the option exercise
price by more than the premium paid for the option. Or a profit can be
realized it, prior to expiration, the option rights can be sold for more
than they cost. Example: You expect lower interest rates to result in
higher bond prices (interest rates and bond prices move inversely). To
profit if you are right, you buy a June T-bond 82 call. Assume the premium
you pay is $2,000. If, at the expiration of the option (in May) the June
T-bond futures price is 88, you can realize a gain of 6 (that's $6,000) by
exercising or selling the option that was purchased at 82. Since you paid
$2,000 for the option, your net profit is $4,000 less transaction costs. As
mentioned, the most that an option buyer can lose is the option premium
plus transaction costs. Thus, in the preceding example, the most you could
have lost--no matter how wrong you might have been about the direction and
timing of interest rates and bond prices--would have been the $2,000
premium you paid for the option plus transaction costs. In contrast if you
had an outright long position in the underlying futures contract, your
potential loss would be unlimited. It should be pointed out, however, that
while an option buyer has a limited risk (the loss of the option premium),
his profit potential is reduced by the amount of the premium. In the
example, the option buyer realized a net profit of $4,000. For someone with
an outright long position in the June T-bond futures contract, an increase
in the futures price from 82 to 88 would have yielded a net profit of
$6,000 less transaction costs. Although an option buyer cannot lose more
than the premium paid for the option, he can lose the entire amount of the
premium. This will be the case if an option held until expiration is not
worthwhile to exercise.
Back
to TOP
Buying Put Options
Whereas a call option
conveys the right to purchase (go long) a particular futures contract at a
specified price, a put option conveys the right to sell (go short) a
particular futures contract at a specified price. Put options can be
purchased to profit from an anticipated price decrease. As in the case of
call options, the most that a put option buyer can lose, if he is wrong
about the direction or timing of the price change, is the option premium
plus transaction costs. Example: Expecting a decline in the price of gold,
you pay a premium of $1,000 to purchase an October 320 gold put option. The
option gives you the right to sell a 100 ounce gold futures contract for
$320 an ounce. Assume that, at expiration, the October futures price
has--as you expected-declined to $290 an ounce. The option giving you the
right to sell at $320 can thus be sold or exercised at a gain of $30 an
ounce. On 100 ounces, that's $3,000. After subtracting $1,000 paid for the
option, your net profit comes to $2,000. Had you been wrong about the
direction or timing of a change in the gold futures price, the most you
could have lost would have been the $1,000 premium paid for the option plus
transaction costs. However, you could have lost the entire premium.
Back
to TOP
How Option Premiums are Determined
Option premiums are
determined the same way futures prices are determined, through active
competition between buyers and sellers. Three major variables influence the
premium for a given option: * The option's exercise price, or, more
specifically, the relationship between the exercise price and the current
price of the underlying futures contract. All else being equal, an option
that is already worthwhile to exercise (known as an
"in-the-money" option) commands a higher premium than an option
that is not yet worthwhile to exercise (an "out-of-the-money"
option). For example, if a gold contract is currently selling at $295 an
ounce, a put option conveying the right to sell gold at $320 an ounce is
more valuable than a put option that conveys the right to sell gold at only
$300 an ounce. * The length of time remaining until expiration. All else
being equal, an option with a long period of time remaining until
expiration commands a higher premium than an option with a short period of
time remaining until expiration because it has more time in which to become
profitable. Said another way, an option is an eroding asset. Its time value
declines as it approaches expiration. * The volatility of the underlying
futures contract. All rise being equal, the greater the volatility the
higher the option premium. In a volatile market, the option stands a
greater chance of becoming profitable to exercise.
Back
to TOP
Selling Options
At this point, you
might well ask, who sells the options that option buyers purchase? The
answer is that options are sold by other market participants known as
option writers, or grantors. Their sole reason for writing options is to
earn the premium paid by the option buyer. If the option expires without
being exercised (which is what the option writer hopes will happen), the
writer retains the full amount of the premium. If the option buyer
exercises the option, however, the writer must pay the difference between
the market value and the exercise price. It should be emphasized and
clearly recognized that unlike an option buyer who has a limited risk (the
loss of the option premium), the writer of an option has unlimited risk.
This is because any gain realized by the option buyer if and when he
exercises the option will become a loss for the option writer.
|
|
Reward
|
Risk
|
|
Option
Buyer
|
Except for the
premium, an option buyer has the same profit potential as someone with
an outright position in the underlying futures contract.
|
An option maximum
loss: is the premium paid for the option
|
|
Option
Writer
|
An option
writer's maximum profit is premium received for writing the option
|
An option
writer's loss is unlimited. Except for the premium received, risk is
the same as having an outright position in the underlying futures
contract.
|
|
Back
to TOP
In Closing
The foregoing is, at
most, a brief and incomplete discussion of a complex topic. Options trading
has its own vocabulary and its own arithmetic. If you wish to consider
trading in options on futures contracts, you should discuss the possibility
with your broker and read and thoroughly understand the Options Disclosure
Document which he is required to provide. In addition, have your broker
provide you with educational and other literature prepared by the exchanges
on which options are traded. Or contact the exchange directly. A number of
excellent publications are available. In no way, it should be emphasized,
should anything discussed herein be considered trading advice or
recommendations. That should be provided by your broker or advisor.
Similarly, your broker or advisor--as well as the exchanges where futures
contracts are traded--are your best sources for additional, more detailed
information about futures trading.
TO AGRITRENDS.COM HOME PAGE
|